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Will Your Christmas Be Snowy? Check the Odds!

USAMonday, December 22, 2025
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In the U.S., the odds of a snowy Christmas depend a lot on where you live.

Northern States Have the Best Shot

  • Northern states, especially those near Canada, have the best chance.
  • Places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota are more likely to see snow on December 25th.
  • Even parts of the Northeast, like the Adirondacks and northern Maine, have a good chance.

Southern and Western States Face Lower Odds

  • The chances drop as you move south and west.
  • Most of South Dakota, Iowa, and the southern states have very low odds of snow.
  • A big weather system is expected to bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to many areas, making it harder for snow to stick around.

Current Snow Coverage

  • Right now, only about 22% of the Lower 48 states are covered in snow.
  • Even in the northern areas, where it's usually colder, temperatures are expected to rise.
  • This means that even places with snow might not keep it for long.

Historical Probabilities

  • Historically, the northern states have the highest chances of a white Christmas.
  • Minneapolis-St. Paul: 74% chance
  • New York City: 13% chance
  • The farther south you go, the less likely it is to snow.
  • The Appalachian Mountains are an exception, with higher elevations sometimes seeing snow.

Final Thought

If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, you might want to check the odds for your area. It could make all the difference in whether you see snow or not!

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