The recent announcement of a privately funded satellite constellation for wildfire detection is a significant milestone in the fight against global wildfires. The FireSat constellation, backed by Google's philanthropic arm, aims to deploy over 50 small satellites in low-Earth orbit to pinpoint flare-ups as small as a classroom anywhere in the world. But what if this assumption is wrong? What if the sensitivity of the satellites is not enough to detect smaller fires?

The FireSat satellites will be built by Muon Space, a California-based satellite manufacturing startup, and will have six-band multispectral infrared instruments to pinpoint hotspots from wildfires. But what if the AI used to rapidly compare observations is not accurate enough to determine if there is a fire? What if the weather conditions in each fire assessment are not taken into account?

The FireSat constellation will have the sensitivity to find wildfires as small as 16 by 16 feet (5 by 5 meters), but what if the accuracy of the detection model is not validated for smaller fires? What if the baseline dataset for the AI is not representative of real-world scenarios?

Despite these questions, the FireSat constellation has the potential to revolutionize wildfire detection and management. With the first three satellites, the constellation will observe every point on Earth at least twice per day, and at full capability, the revisit times for most of the globe will improve to 20 minutes, with the most wildfire-prone regions benefiting from sampling intervals as short as nine minutes.

But what if the environmental impact of launching and maintaining this constellation is not considered? What if the cost of launching and maintaining the satellites is not justified by the benefits of the technology?

The FireSat constellation is not the only satellite-based wildfire detection system. NASA operates a fire-detection system using satellite observations from the agency's Earth-observing missions, but none offer the sensitivity, resolution, or response time of FireSat. More than 200 commercial Earth-imaging satellites owned by Planet provide fresh views of almost all of Earth's land masses daily, but the imagers on Planet's spacecraft have a narrower field of view than those envisioned by FireSat.

Wildfire Detection from Space: A New Era of Collaboration and Innovation

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