Why Africa's Rainfall Forecasts Matter

Rain is no joke in Africa; it affects everything from farming to health. To predict rain, different tools are used, including numerical weather models (NWMs). These models cover whole regions, provide detailed images, and can look into the future. This study looked at two main models: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS). They were compared to Rainfall Estimates 2. 0 (RFE2) and African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2), which combine satellite and ground data.

From 2016 to 2018, these models were tested for their accuracy in forecasting short-term rainfall across Africa. It turns out, they did a solid job matching the rainfall observations from satellites. Plus, the longer the forecast period (up to a week), the better they performed. But things get tricky when looking at daily and weekly forecasts. The accuracy varies a lot across Africa, especially where the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and high mountains are involved. This zone and high terrains affect rainfall patterns significantly. So, while there's a good general match, the models need more tweaking to handle daily and weekly predictions over different parts of Africa.

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