What Could Go Wrong for China if Taiwan Stands Strong?

Many studies examine how the U.S. and its allies would respond to an attack, but what if China doesn't succeed?

Possible Scenarios and Consequences

Scenario 1: A Small Fight Turns into a Long Blockade

• China might have to back down after U.S. intervention.

Scenario 2: A Full-Scale Invasion

• Could lead to heavy losses and a retreat after months of fighting.

Potential Impacts of a Failed Attack

• Economic Costs: Could cost China trillions.
• Military Losses: Significant, making future operations risky.
• Social Unrest: Could rise significantly.
• Global Standing: Could take a major blow.

President Xi Jinping's Political Future

• His "Chinese Dream" of national rejuvenation depends on success.
• A failed military campaign could undermine his authority.

Factors Influencing Xi's Decision

• Leaders often ignore high costs if they believe the benefits are substantial.
• Fear that not acting could be worse for his legacy.
• History shows misperceptions can lead to conflict (e.g., Korean War, World War I).

Military Leaders and Risky Decisions

• Might not give Xi honest assessments of their capabilities.
• Could lead to risky decisions, similar to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
• Inexperience in high-intensity conflicts could encourage risk-taking.

The Importance of Deterrence

• Taiwan, the U.S., and other allies must show they can repel an attack.
• Must highlight the high costs of failure for China.

Consequences of a Failed Operation

• Severe impacts on China's economy, military, social stability, and international standing.
• History of failed amphibious operations shows how bad things could get.