Voting Before the Big Day: What We're Seeing

Early voting is nearly over, with over 78 million votes already cast in 47 states and D. C. This gives us a preview of who's voting early, but it's not a crystal ball for the election results. We can't see who people voted for, and it doesn't include everyone who'll vote on Tuesday. Let's dive into what we know so far. First, early voting is down from 2020. Back then, over 110 million Americans voted early, making up about 70% of all votes. This year, early voting will likely be around 50%, similar to the 2022 midterms. Some states, like North Carolina and Georgia, set records for in-person early voting, but mail-in voting dropped due to tougher rules. Remember, mail voting was popular during the pandemic to avoid crowds.

Republicans are stepping up their early vote game. The Trump campaign pushed for early voting this year, unlike in 2020. In 27 states, registered Republicans made up 35% of early votes, while Democrats had 37%. This is a smaller gap than 2020's 12-point lead for Democrats. In key states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republican early votes increased, while Democrats saw a decrease. The gender gap in early voting is still wide, but it's narrowed a bit from 2020. In competitive states, more women than men voted early, with Georgia having the biggest gap. However, the gap is smaller due to fewer early votes overall and a slight narrowing in the percentage difference.

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