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Unexpected Upsets Loom at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Orlando, FL, USATuesday, March 3, 2026

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is back on the PGA Tour calendar, drawing many top names after a brief hiatus. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Scottie Scheffler as the most likely winner, with odds of +340. Other notable favorites include:

  • Rory McIlroy – +1000
  • Tommy Fleetwood – +1900
  • Matt Fitzpatrick – +2300
  • Xander Schauffele – +2500

Before placing any bets, it helps to examine a data‑driven forecast from SportsLine’s advanced model. Created by DFS expert Mike McClure, the system runs 10,000 simulations for each tournament and has a strong record of accurate predictions, including six major titles in 2025.

Model Insights

The model’s output for this event is surprising:

Player Odds Simulated Position
Xander Schauffele +2500 Rarely in top 10
Si Woo Kim +3300 Realistic contender
Other long‑shots (odds > +2700) Projected to challenge

These insights suggest that backing the high‑odds players could pay off. The model’s track record indicates it is worth checking before finalizing any picks.

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