Trump's Trade Move: Who Wins and Who Loses?

In January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This move aims to pressure Iran amid ongoing protests and economic struggles. Trump encouraged protesters to keep pushing for change, promising support.

Global Reactions and Potential Consequences

China

• Iran's biggest trade partner, buying most of Iran's oil.
• Recent agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs and boost trade.
• Potential retaliation:
• Stopping U.S. farm imports.
• Halting rare earth exports, impacting U.S. industries and elections.

Iraq

• Imports various goods from Iran.
• Already cut Iranian gas imports due to U.S. pressure, affecting power supply.
• Further strain on Iraq's economy and politics.

UAE

• U.S. ally importing billions in Iranian goods.
• Unlikely to halt security cooperation but may explore other trade options.
• Impact on U.S. companies like Boeing.

Turkey

• NATO member with significant trade ties to Iran.
• Weak economy may lead to pausing Boeing aircraft orders pending investigation into a recent crash.

Afghanistan and Pakistan

• Heavy trade with Iran.
• Pakistan may use the tariff to negotiate better terms with the U.S. and Taliban, benefiting from new trade routes.

Russia

• Lower but significant trade with Iran.
• Unlikely to be bothered by the tariff.

Central Asia

• Countries like Turkmenistan are strengthening ties with Iran.
• Potential shift closer to China, opposite of U.S. interests.

China's Strong Hand

• Can impact U.S. industries by slowing exports of essential goods.
• Other countries may pause trade with the U.S., waiting for better conditions.