The US economy is facing a tough time. The chances of a recession have gone up because of rising tariffs. This is not good news for anyone. A big bank, Goldman Sachs, thinks there is now a 35% chance of a recession in the next year. This is a big jump from the 20% chance they thought a few months ago.

        Tariffs are taxes on goods coming into the country. They can make things more expensive. This can hurt both businesses and regular people. The bank also thinks that inflation, which is when prices go up, will be higher than they thought before. They think the economy will grow by only 1% in 2025. This is not great news for anyone who wants the economy to do well.

        The bank also thinks that more people will be out of work. They think the unemployment rate will be 4. 5% by the end of the year. This is higher than they thought before. The bank thinks that the trade war started by the President is the main reason for all of this.

        The President has been talking about using tariffs a lot. This has surprised many people, including investors and economists. The President said that he would put tariffs on all countries, not just a few. This is a big deal because it means that more goods will be more expensive. The bank thinks that the average tariff rate will go up by 15 percentage points in 2025. This is a big increase.

        The bank also thinks that the Federal Reserve, which is the country's central bank, will have to help the economy. They think the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year. This is because the economy might need some help to keep growing. Higher tariffs can make things more expensive for everyone. This can hurt the economy and make it harder for people to buy things. The bank thinks that this will be a big problem.

        People are not feeling good about the economy right now. A survey showed that more people think that unemployment will go up. This is not a good sign. The bank thinks that this is a problem because the economy is not as strong as it was a few years ago. This means that people might not be able to handle a big shock to the economy. The bank thinks that the trade war is a big shock.

Trade War Turmoil: How Tariffs Might Hit Your Wallet

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