The Philadelphia 76ers are facing a tough reality: their future first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft might not stay with them. Let's rewind to 2020 when the Sixers traded Al Horford to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The deal seemed like a win-win, but it came with a cost—their 2025 first-round pick, top-six protected. Fast forward to 2024, and the Sixers are struggling with a record of 2-12. If they make the playoffs, they'll likely lose that pick.

The NBA's new draft lottery rules make things even trickier. Now, the worst teams have an equal shot at the top four picks, not just three. This change aims to discourage "tanking" but might make it harder for the Sixers to keep their pick. To hang onto it, the Sixers need to finish with one of the two worst records, which seems unlikely given their current situation.

Let’s crunch some numbers. According to Tankathon, the Sixers have a near-certain chance of keeping their pick if they land in the top two spots. The odds drop as the lottery positions go higher. By the seventh spot, their chances drop below 50%. To have a good shot at keeping their pick, they need to finish with a bottom-five record.

In essence, the Sixers' future pick hinges on how well or poorly they perform this season. It’s a lesson in the unpredictable nature of sports and the importance of every game, even in October.

The Sixers' 2025 First Round Pick: A Crucial Basketball Lesson

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