The world is getting hotter.  This is not a surprise.  This is due to human activities.  The big question is: how will this affect people's lives?  How will it affect the number of extreme weather events people experience in their lifetime?  This is a complex issue.  It involves looking at climate models, impact models, and demographic data.  The goal is to project the number of people who will experience extreme weather events.  These are events that are above the 99. 99th percentile of what was expected in a pre-industrial climate.

In simple terms, this means looking at the worst-case scenarios.  The findings are alarming.  The fraction of people facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, droughts, wildfires, and tropical cyclones is set to at least double from 1960 to 2020.  This is under current mitigation policies.  These policies align with a global warming pathway.  This pathway reaches 2. 7°C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100.

The situation is even more dire for those born in 2020.  Under a 1. 5°C pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves.  If global warming reaches 3. 5°C by 2100, this fraction rises dramatically.  It reaches 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures, and 14% for river floods.  The impact is not evenly distributed.  The chance of facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves is substantially larger among population groups characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerabilities.

This raises important questions.  What can be done to mitigate these effects?  The answer is clear.  Deep and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions are necessary.  This is to lower the burden of climate change on current young generations.  It is a call to action.  The future is in our hands.  The choices made today will shape the world of tomorrow.

The Future's Heat: How Climate Extremes Will Affect Us

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