Thanksgiving Turkeys: A Look at the Numbers Behind Your Meal

This year, turkey lovers might notice a difference in their Thanksgiving meal. The number of turkeys in the U.S. has dropped to a 40-year low. Why? Two big reasons: bird flu and another disease called avian metapneumovirus. These illnesses have made it harder for farmers to raise turkeys.

Farmers Feel the Impact

Larry Doll, who runs Old Brick Farm near Detroit, was lucky. His farm didn't get sick birds. But even he felt the effects. The place where he gets his turkey chicks had fewer birds this year. He had to order new chicks early or risk not getting any.

Thanksgiving Meals Might Cost More

The U.S. Department of Agriculture says turkey prices could go up by 44%. But don't worry, some stores are offering deals. You might even find free turkeys! However, the rest of your meal could be more expensive. Things like canned goods are pricier because of tariffs on imported steel. A basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples cost about 4% more than last year. But not everyone agrees on the exact price. Different groups have different numbers.

• American Farm Bureau Federation: Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will cost less this year.
• Other groups: It might cost more.

Grocery Stores Offer Deals

Grocery stores are trying to attract shoppers with deals.

• Aldi: Advertising a $40 meal for 10 people.
• Kroger: Says you can feed 10 people for under $50.
• President Trump: Talked about Walmart's Thanksgiving meal basket.

But be careful, the basket might have fewer items this year. Experts say stores are offering promotions to get customers in the door. Even though turkey prices have gone up a lot since August, people might still choose turkey over other meats. Beef prices are up too, so turkey seems like a better deal.

Tariffs and Weather Affect Prices

• Tariffs: On imported steel and aluminum are making canned goods more expensive. Jellied cranberry sauce is up by 38%!
• Weather: Drought in Massachusetts hurt cranberry production. But in Illinois, dry weather helped pumpkins avoid diseases. So, pumpkin pie mix is actually cheaper this year.

Back at Old Brick Farm

Larry Doll is getting ready to send his turkeys to an Amish butcher. He sold all 92 turkeys he raised this year. Customers paid $6.50 per pound. Doll loves knowing that his turkeys are the centerpiece of people's Thanksgiving dinners. He enjoys providing food for the holiday.