Syria's Shaky Truce: What's Next for Kurds and Government Forces?

Government Troops and Kurdish Forces Brace for Potential Conflict

Tensions are high in northern Syria as government troops and Kurdish forces face off, waiting for a deadline that could either bring peace or more fighting. The deadline, set for Saturday evening, was supposed to decide if the two sides would stop fighting or keep going. But there's talk that the deadline might be pushed back, giving both sides more time to think.

Government Forces on a Winning Streak

Government forces, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, have been on a winning streak, taking over large areas in the north and east from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Just a few days ago, Sharaa called for a ceasefire, giving the SDF until Saturday night to figure out how to join his army. But the SDF, which has run its own autonomous areas for the last decade, isn't keen on merging with Sharaa's Islamist-led government.

Both Sides Prepare for Possible Conflict

As the deadline approaches, both sides are getting ready. The SDF has been reinforcing its positions in key cities like Qamishli, Hasakeh, and Kobane, just in case fighting starts up again. Syrian officials and SDF sources think the deadline will likely be extended, maybe for a week or so. Turkey's foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, hinted that this might happen, especially with the recent transfers of Islamic State prisoners from Syria to Iraq.

A Year of Rising Tensions

The current standoff is the result of a year of rising tensions. Sharaa, who took over from longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, wants to bring all of Syria under his control, including the Kurdish-held areas. But the Kurds have been resistant, leading to a year-end deadline for a merger that didn't go anywhere. That's when Syrian troops launched their offensive, quickly capturing two key provinces from the SDF.

International Involvement and Concerns

The U.S. and France have been trying to broker a lasting ceasefire and help the SDF integrate into Sharaa's government. They've urged Sharaa not to send his troops into the remaining Kurdish-held areas, fearing it could lead to mass abuses against Kurdish civilians. This concern isn't unfounded, as government-affiliated forces killed nearly 1,500 Alawites and hundreds of Druze people in sectarian violence last year.

Islamic State Transfers and International Burdens

Meanwhile, the U.S. military has been moving hundreds of Islamic State fighters from Syrian prisons into Iraq. Iraq's foreign minister has said that Baghdad shouldn't have to bear the "security and financial burdens" of these transfers alone.