In the fast-paced world of today, climate change is making waves in the hydrological cycle. This study looked at two paths for carbon emissions: "low-carbon" and "high-carbon. " Using the SWAT model, they checked runoff changes in the Mang River Basin for the next few decades (2021-2060) and the end of the century (2061-2100).

They found that the SWAT model is super reliable here, showing high accuracy with R² values over 0. 65 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) over 0. 8. The parameters ESCO and SOL_AWC were especially important for runoff.

Climate changes ahead look like more rainfall fluctuations and rising temperatures. By the end of the 21st century, temperatures could jump by 1. 37-5. 02°C. In the "high carbon" path, temperatures could rise by 0. 53-0. 63°C per decade, and in the "low carbon" path, by 0. 17-0. 38°C per decade. Future rainfall might be heavier, especially under the "low-carbon" path.

With more climate change, runoff could increase faster under the "high-carbon" path, with a rate of 0. 099 m³/s·a for SSP5-8. 5, giving a total change of 30. 65%. In the "low-carbon" path, the increase is slower but speeds up after mid-century, with rates from 0. 046 to 0. 079 m³/s·a.

Over time, temperature will have a bigger impact on runoff, but rainfall will still be the main factor. The basin is getting warmer and wetter. This study helps plan future measures for soil and water conservation and eco-protection in climate-affected, vulnerable areas.

Surprising Future Water Flows in China's Mang River Basin

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