Storm Season Outlook: What to Expect in 2026

The official start of the 2026 tropical storm and hurricane season is fast approaching, with scientists forecasting a quieter year overall. NOAA’s latest models suggest about a 35 % chance that the season will be near normal, while only a 10 % probability exists for more named storms than usual. A developing El Niño, possibly a “super” event, raises the odds of fewer Atlantic and Caribbean storms to roughly 55 %. Historically, from 1991‑2020, the average season sees 14 named storms, seven turning into hurricanes and three becoming major (Category 3‑5). The Atlantic calendar runs from June 1 to November 30. NOAA now expects between eight and fourteen named storms, with three to six becoming hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. In contrast, the central Pacific is projected to be busier, with a 70 % chance of an above‑normal season and five to thirteen cyclones versus the usual fifteen in the eastern Pacific. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic activity by increasing wind shear, which hampers storm growth. Past strong El Niños in 1997 and 2015 produced below‑average seasons. La Niña does the opposite, lowering shear and allowing storms to thrive; 2020’s record‑setting season coincided with La Niña. Even if El Niño dominates, warmer sea‑surface temperatures across the Atlantic and Caribbean could keep activity higher than expected.

Recent climate models point to a likely “super” El Niño starting late this year, perhaps in October. The odds are about 65 % that it will be one of the strongest on record, with sea‑surface temperatures at least 3. 6 °C above normal. Ocean heat is rising faster than anticipated, and a formal El Niño declaration could come anytime between now and July. Storms need at least 80 °F ocean temperatures. Summer averages in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have been near record highs. Last year’s 2025 season had 13 named storms, including three Category 5 hurricanes and a peak wind of 190 mph from Hurricane Melissa. Total damage reached roughly $12. 7 billion. The 2024 season was also historic, with 18 named storms and five major hurricanes; Hurricane Milton topped the record books with 180 mph winds. On land, the Inland Northwest has seen drier conditions than usual. As of last weekend, only 0. 46 inches of rain had fallen in Coeur d’Alene compared to a May average of 2. 37 inches. Current models predict only occasional showers into mid‑June. The U. S. Drought Monitor lists moderate to severe drought across the area, and the emerging El Niño could make summer drier and warmer. Fire risk is expected to be above normal throughout much of the season.

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