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The 2026 Hurricane Season: What to Expect

A Quieter Atlantic, But Rising Risks Elsewhere

The 2026 tropical storm and hurricane season officially begins on June 1, and early forecasts suggest a less active Atlantic than in recent years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts:

• 35% chance of a near-normal season
• 10% chance of above-normal activity
• 55% chance of below-normal activity—driven largely by a developing El Niño, possibly a "super" event.

Historically, the Atlantic averages 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3-5) per season. For 2026, NOAA estimates:

• 8 to 14 named storms
• 3 to 6 hurricanes
• 1 to 3 major hurricanes

El Niño’s Looming Shadow Over the Atlantic

The Pacific phenomenon El Niño is expected to play a key role in suppressing Atlantic storm development. Its strong wind shear disrupts tropical systems, while warmer Pacific waters could fuel a busier central Pacific season (70% chance of above-normal activity).

• Historical Impact: Strong El Niños in 1997 and 2015 led to below-average Atlantic seasons.
• La Niña’s Opposite Effect: The 2020 record season (30 named storms) occurred during La Niña, which reduces shear.

Even with El Niño, record-high Atlantic sea-surface temperatures may keep storm counts higher than usual. Models suggest a "super" El Niño could form by October, with 65% odds of it being one of the strongest on record—sea temperatures 3.6°C above normal.

A Look Back: 2024 & 2025’s Destructive Seasons

Recent years have seen exceptionally powerful storms:

2025 Season Recap

• 13 named storms, including 3 Category 5 hurricanes
• Hurricane Melissa peaked at 190 mph winds
• $12.7 billion in damages

2024 Season Recap

• 18 named storms, 5 major hurricanes
• Hurricane Milton reached 180 mph winds

Drier Times Ahead for the Inland Northwest

While the Atlantic may see reduced activity, the Inland Northwest faces a different challenge—drought and wildfire risk.

• Drier Than Usual: Coeur d’Alene has received only 0.46 inches of rain in May (vs. average 2.37 inches).
• Fire Risk: The U.S. Drought Monitor reports moderate to severe drought across the region, with above-normal fire risk expected through summer.

El Niño could worsen drought conditions, keeping skies clear and temperatures high.

--- ^{Sources: NOAA, U.S. Drought Monitor, National Hurricane Center}