Cities worldwide are scrambling to upgrade their drainage systems to handle the impacts of climate change. But with limited resources, it's a challenge to figure out where to invest for the best results. Traditional planning methods often fall short because they don't account for the complex and changing nature of these systems.

Researchers have developed a new approach to tackle this issue. They created a computational framework that combines physics-based models with data-driven techniques. This framework helps to understand the dynamic relationship between making systems more adaptable and keeping them sustainable.

One key finding is that early investments in low-impact development (LID) strategies, like those used in China's Sponge City initiative, can significantly improve adaptability. However, these improvements come with a cost increase. Interestingly, later investments yield smaller gains in adaptability but require much higher costs.

The study also reveals a crucial turning point. Before this point, there are multiple viable pathways for adaptation, but after it, the best options converge toward a specific trajectory called the Global Minimum Adaptation Cost Trajectory (GMACT). This means that to achieve high adaptability, cities should aim to align their upgrades with this trajectory.

This research provides valuable insights for policymakers. By using the GMACT as a reference, they can make more informed decisions about upgrading urban drainage systems. This approach helps ensure that investments are both cost-effective and sustainable, even in the face of deep uncertainty.

Smart Drainage: Balancing Costs and Benefits in a Changing Climate

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