NATO's 5% Spending Goal: A Test of Trust and Clarity
NATO's new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035, set at the 2025 summit, is a significant development. However, the plan is more complex than it appears.
The Split Spending Plan
The target is divided into two parts:
- 3.5% for traditional defense
- 1.5% for broader security needs
The ambiguity lies in defining what constitutes the latter.
The Risk of Creative Bookkeeping
Without clear guidelines, governments may re-label existing civilian programs as security-related to meet the target. This risk is heightened during budget constraints.
High Stakes for NATO
The alliance's strength depends on fair effort and transparency. If the 1.5% becomes a gray area, the 5% target could weaken, rather than strengthen, NATO.
Diverging Views Among Allies
- Some see it as a way to appease the U.S.
- Others, particularly those on NATO's eastern border, take it seriously.
Resilience is not a replacement for military power but a support system. It involves protecting energy and digital infrastructure to ensure societal stability under pressure.
The Importance of Resilience
NATO has emphasized resilience since 2016. The Ukraine war underscores its importance. Military power relies on civilian systems, making resilient energy and digital infrastructure crucial.
Need for Clear Rules
To make this work, NATO must:
- Define what counts as resilience spending
- Set reporting standards
- Ensure projects enhance military readiness
Without these guardrails, the 1.5% target could be misused.
The 2026 Summit in Turkey
This summit is an opportunity to address these issues. The compromise made in The Hague bought time and consensus. Now, NATO must turn the resilience component into a force multiplier.
The goal is to harden collective defense and ensure the alliance remains strong and united.
