Myanmar's Military: Playing Politics Amidst Chaos
Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, is attempting to gain control through elections after failing to do so through force. The junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, recently urged voters to support candidates who align with the military's interests. This move comes nearly five years after the military took power in a coup, facing strong opposition from armed resistance groups.
The Junta's Strategy
The junta hopes to stabilize its rule and gain international recognition through these elections. However, analysts and diplomats doubt this will work, given the ongoing civil war and the military's unpopularity abroad. The elections are taking place in only 202 of Myanmar's 330 townships, showing the limited control the military has.
Historical Context
The military has a long history of dominating Myanmar's politics since the country's independence in 1948. Min Aung Hlaing joined this tradition in 2021, overthrowing a civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Many political parties, including Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, are not allowed to participate in the upcoming elections.
The Election Landscape
Six parties are competing, with the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) expected to win. This could pave the way for Min Aung Hlaing to take a civilian role, but it's not guaranteed. The USDP has experienced leaders, and the path to the presidency is not straightforward.
Past Elections and Current Challenges
Past elections managed by the military, like in 2010, led to reforms and a transfer of power to Suu Kyi in 2015. However, the current situation is different due to the widespread violence and resistance since the coup. Analysts warn that these elections could worsen the violence and instability in the country.
International Legitimacy
The junta is also seeking international legitimacy through these elections, especially from neighboring countries and the ASEAN bloc. However, many nations and international organizations criticize the elections, citing the lack of inclusivity and freedom. The junta insists the elections are for the people of Myanmar, not for international approval.
