The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided not to release a forecast that highlighted the risk of measles in areas with low vaccination rates. This decision came despite the fact that the forecast was based on solid data and expert analysis. The CDC's choice to keep this information under wraps has raised eyebrows, especially since the agency has always been clear about the importance of vaccines.

The CDC's decision not to release the forecast is a shift from its usual approach. In the past, the CDC has been straightforward about the need for vaccines. For example, during flu season, the agency ran campaigns encouraging people to get their shots. The CDC's website even provided guidance for medical providers on how to talk to parents about vaccinating their children.

So, why the change? The CDC's spokesperson said the forecast didn't offer any new information. However, some experts disagree. Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University School of Public Health, thinks the CDC should be sharing more details about the spread of measles, not less. She points out that the number of measles cases has already surpassed last year's total, and the disease has spread to multiple states. This is not a situation where people can afford to be unsure about the risks.

The CDC's decision also comes at a time when the agency is facing significant changes. The Health and Human Services Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. , has been vocal about his views on vaccines. He believes that the decision to vaccinate is a personal one and that people should be fully informed about the risks and benefits. This perspective is a departure from the CDC's usual stance, which has always been to promote vaccines as the best way to protect against diseases like measles.

The CDC's risk assessment was carried out by its Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. This center was created to address gaps in the CDC's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses data and expertise to predict the course of outbreaks, much like a weather service predicts storms. The center's assessment found that while the risk of measles is low for the general public, it is high in communities with low vaccination rates that are near outbreaks or have close social ties to those areas.

The CDC's decision not to release the forecast has also raised concerns about the agency's independence. Some CDC staff members have expressed anxiety about whether the agency will bend its public health messages to match those of the new leadership. This is a valid concern, given that the Health and Human Services Secretary has a history of being critical of vaccines.

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