The Israeli military is contemplating a significant shift in its approach to Gaza. They are considering a full-scale invasion and long-term occupation of the territory. This move is backed by far-right ministers who have long advocated for tougher measures against Hamas. The plan involves mobilizing several combat divisions to invade and control large areas of Gaza, forcing the 2. 2 million residents into a small humanitarian zone along the Mediterranean coast.

The Israeli military would then take over the administration of Gaza, effectively reoccupying the territory 20 years after they withdrew. This would mean uprooting millions of civilians and confining them to an even smaller, barren area, where they would rely on food aid to survive. Such a plan could lead to a prolonged insurgency against Israeli troops, making the situation even more volatile.

The current plan is a departure from Israel's previous strategy. Until now, Israel has used short, intense combat operations to target Hamas, followed by withdrawals. The new approach involves sustained combat and administration, signaling a more aggressive and long-term strategy. This shift comes after Israel's inability to completely remove Hamas from power, despite significant military efforts.

The recent ceasefire in Gaza was fragile and short-lived. Hamas quickly regained control after Israel agreed to halt fighting in exchange for the release of hostages. This failure has fueled criticism of former security officials and strengthened the resolve of current leaders to eliminate Hamas entirely. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas, and recent military actions reflect this commitment.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire. The Israeli military's actions have led to a crisis, with over 50, 000 Palestinians killed and much of the enclave destroyed. The UN has withdrawn a third of its international staff from Gaza after an Israeli tank shell hit a UN compound, killing an aid worker and injuring others. The Israeli military denies targeting the compound, but the incident highlights the escalating tensions and the urgent need for a resolution.

The new plan involves controlling the distribution of humanitarian aid, ensuring that Hamas does not benefit. This could mean direct distribution by the Israeli military or through private contractors. The goal is to weaken Hamas by cutting off its support and control over the population. However, this approach risks further destabilizing the region and prolonging the conflict.

The Israeli military's recent actions, including breaking the ceasefire with air strikes and ground operations, indicate a renewed offensive. The air strikes have resulted in significant civilian casualties, with preliminary figures showing that 400 people, mostly women and children, were killed in a single day. The military claims to be targeting Hamas leaders, but the high civilian toll raises serious concerns about the proportionality and legality of these actions.

The far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has called for a long battle to "finish the job" in Gaza. He has warned that Gaza will not return to its previous state, suggesting a fundamental change in the territory's administration and control. However, defense analysts question whether the Israeli military can achieve its goals in a few months, given the attrition among its forces and the need for significant troop deployments.

The situation in Gaza is complex and fraught with challenges. Any long-term occupation would require sustained military and administrative efforts, as well as a strategy to address the humanitarian crisis. The international community must closely monitor the developments and work towards a sustainable solution that respects the rights and dignity of all people in the region.

Israel's New Strategy: A Long-Term Occupation of Gaza?

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