For years, Israel had a clear idea of what to expect from Syria. Now, everything's changed. The sudden collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime has given rise to powerful Sunni extremist groups, like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. This shift might seem like good news for Jerusalem, as it has weakened Iran's presence on the northern border and cut off a key supply route for Hezbollah. But Israel is now facing a new set of problems. These extremist groups pose a threat, and there's a chance that Iran's influence could be replaced by Turkey's. No one knows how Turkey, a major regional power and NATO member, will act on the border. This all means that Israel is navigating a new phase of regional competition, with the US also having to rethink its approach in the Middle East.

Eran Ortal, a retired Israeli military analyst, pointed out that Israel is still trying to figure out its strategy in this new situation. "At this stage, I don't think Israel has devised a coherent strategy vis-a-vis Syria, " he said. Instead, Israel is focused on securing its borders and watching the situation closely. The speed and enthusiasm with which the new Syrian regime has embraced Jolani and other Al-Qaeda partners are concerns for Israel. They worry that these groups will revert to extremist behavior soon. Moreover, the possibility of Turkish influence replacing Iran's is also a significant concern. "No one knows what the possible Turkish role on our border will be, " Ortal explained.

This new strategic dynamic is complex and unpredictable. The regional competition is changing, and Israel is caught in the middle. The US is also trying to adapt, with the Biden administration rapidly engaging with the new Syrian power broker, Jolani. However, the future is uncertain, and the incoming Trump administration will have to decide how to support regional allies like Israel in this evolving situation.

Israel Faces New Worries in Syria After Assad's Fall

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