How Many People Really Have Lyme Disease?

Scientists have come up with two ways to estimate how many people get Lyme disease, also known as Lyme borreliosis (LB). The first method looks at how many people have antibodies against the bacteria that cause Lyme disease, Borrelia, in their blood. They fix any mistakes in the tests that might say someone doesn't have the disease when they do (false negatives) or say someone does when they don't (false positives). The second method uses data from dogs that act as sentinels, meaning they help track the disease. This model compares human infections to those in dogs and uses Germany as a reference point. Both methods show that Lyme disease is much more common than official records suggest. The scientists used data on how often the disease happens, how many people have it at any one time, and the total number of infections. They also used a slower growth rate than usual to make sure their estimates were safe.

In 2018, the models estimated that each year, about 473, 000 people in the US, 471, 000 in Germany, 434, 000 in France, and 132, 000 in the UK get Lyme disease. About 2. 4 million people in the US, 2. 4 million in Germany, 2. 2 million in France, and 667, 000 in the UK have the disease at any one time. The total number of infections in these countries is around 10. 1 million in the US, 10 million in Germany, 9. 3 million in France, and 2. 8 million in the UK. Worldwide, in 2018, about 12. 3 million people got Lyme disease each year, 62. 1 million had it at any one time, and the total number of infections was about 262 million. These numbers are much higher than official data because they include people who haven't been diagnosed, or who have been diagnosed incorrectly.

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