weatherneutral
How Heat and Rain Talk in Ghana’s Climate
GhanaWednesday, July 1, 2026
The study investigates how the highest (TMAX) and lowest (TMIN) daily temperatures relate to rainfall across Ghana over 40 years, using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS‑SEM) to untangle complex relationships.
Data Collection
- Period: 1981–2020
- Sources: 252 weather stations covering every month
- Variables:
- TMAX – maximum daily temperature
- TMIN – minimum daily temperature
Because TMAX and TMIN often move together, conventional analysis struggles to isolate their individual effects on rainfall. PLS‑SEM handles this multicollinearity and reveals hidden patterns.
Key Findings
| Relationship | Direction | Geographic Pattern |
|---|---|---|
| TMAX → Rainfall | Negative (higher TMAX, less rain) | Stronger in inland areas than along the coast |
| TMIN → Rainfall | Positive (higher TMIN, more rain) | No specific geographic bias noted |
| TMAX ↔ TMIN | Positive (they rise together) | Stronger near the sea |
- Indirect Pathway: No evidence that TMAX influences rainfall via its effect on TMIN.
- Model Fit: Explains ~20 % of rainfall variation, leaving room for other factors.
Interpretation & Caveats
- The relationships are structural associations, not causal laws.
- Limited variables mean the model cannot capture all complexities of Ghana’s climate system.
- Adding more atmospheric data could clarify why temperature and rainfall interact as observed.
Implications
- PLS‑SEM proves valuable for climate studies where variables overlap.
- Predictive models should account for regional differences (inland vs. coastal).
- Further research with expanded variables is needed to improve rainfall forecasts from temperature patterns.
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