Holding Pattern: The 2024 Presidential Election Looks Closer Than Ever

The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in American history. Just six weeks before Election Day, a new CNN poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck among registered voters. The survey, conducted by CNN and SSRS Opinion Panel, shows the two candidates tied at 47% each, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver also on the ballot. This close race is not just a fluke. The core issues that voters care about are also eerily similar to those in recent weeks. According to the latest survey results, 41% of registered voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their presidential pick, followed closely by protecting democracy (21%), immigration (12%), and abortion/reproductive rights (11%).

One reason for this closeness is that neither candidate has been able to open up a significant lead across national polling. In fact, it's been a while since a presidential race has seen a candidate build a 5-point lead or more. This lack of movement is reflected in the averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight, which show Harris ahead by a mere 2.5 percentage points (48.3% to 45.8%). By comparison, President Joe Biden was ahead by 7.1 percentage points at this point in the 2020 election. The Electoral College race is also looking close, with Harris and Trump nearly tied in terms of secured electoral votes. RealClearPolling (RCP) puts Harris ahead by 2.1 percentage points (49.2% to 47.1%), but the candidates are in a dead heat in the swing states that will decide the election.

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