Gold's Shine and Market Moves: A Closer Look

Volatility Continues

Markets have been on a wild ride lately, leaving many investors confused and frustrated. With just two weeks left in the year, it's a good time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been trading in a tight range for over two months.
• Not ideal for anyone.

Seasonal Patterns

One thing to keep in mind is that markets tend to follow certain patterns during this time of year.

• Historically, December has been a good month for stocks.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq average gains of around 1.5%.
• The second week of December is usually weak.
• Things tend to pick up after the 15th.

Chart Signals

Looking at the charts, there are mixed signals.

• S&P 500 ETF (SPY) shows a possible head and shoulders reversal pattern.
• Could indicate lower prices ahead.
• Also testing key support levels.
• Could provide a bounce.

Macro Factors

Macro factors are also in play.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and U.S. dollar index have been moving lower.
• Typically good for stocks and commodities like gold.
• Gold has been on a tear this year.
• AngloGold Ashanti has seen impressive earnings growth.
• Market cap: $42 billion.
• Forward GAAP PE: 15.4 times 2026 earnings.
• Stock worth watching.

Breaking Correlations

But what if the correlation between gold and stocks breaks down?

• If that happens, gold could rally even if stocks continue to struggle.
• Either way, it's a good idea to stay tactical and be ready for anything.