Chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing a confidence vote on Monday, which he’s likely to lose. This vote is happening because his three-party government collapsed in November after he fired the finance minister. Now, the Banstag, Germany's lower house of parliament, needs to decide. Scholz’s party and the Greens will probably vote and abstain differently, meaning Scholz won’t get the needed majority.

If Scholz loses, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will decide if the Banstag is dissolved. He has said stable majorities are important. An election should follow within 60 days of any dissolution. The campaign has already begun, with candidates discussing major issues like investing in the future, job security, modernizing industry, and the situation in Ukraine.

Scholz and his Social Democrats are expected to trail in the polls behind the center-right Union bloc and Friedrich Merz. Merz believes the economy needs to be more competitive. The far-right party, Alternative for Germany, is also in the race, but unlikely to win much support due to their policies.

Confidence votes are not common in Germany. This is only the sixth time since World War II. The last one was in 2005, when Gerhard Schröder called for an early election, leading to Angela Merkel becoming chancellor.

Germany’s Scholz Faces Vote: Early Elections Expected in February

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