Gas Prices: Who Pays More Under New Tariffs?

The new tariffs on fuel imports from Canada might make some Americans reach deeper into their pockets at the gas pump. Gas prices could go up in the Northeast and on the West Coast, but not right away. The tariffs are 25% for most imports, but only 10% for energy products. The United States buys a lot of oil from Canada. In 2024, the US produced a record 4. 7 billion barrels of oil, but Canada sent 1. 5 billion barrels of crude oil to the US last year. Mexico, facing the same 25% tariff, is the second biggest oil supplier to the US, sending 166 million barrels north. Drivers might feel the pinch, but gas prices are relatively low now. The national average is $3. 11 a gallon. In Massachusetts, it's $3. 01. In Washington State and California, prices are above $4 a gallon. The impact will vary across the country. Different regions get their fuel from different places. For example, the Northeast gets much of its gas from Canada's largest refinery, in Saint John, New Brunswick.

Irving Oil, which runs the refinery, won't cover the increased cost from the tariffs. This could add 20 to 25 cents to a gallon of gas. Irving can redirect shipments to markets without tariffs, but less oil from Irving means reduced supply and likely higher prices. Much of Canada's energy products move through pipelines to US refineries in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states. These refineries prefer Canadian oil because it's a heavier grade that requires less oil to make the same gallon of gas. US refineries on the West Coast could also see their normal supply of Canadian crude shipped overseas, resulting in tighter supply and therefore higher costs. But global oil markets are pushing the price of oil down right now. OPEC+, a group that includes OPEC nations as well as other non-OPEC oil exporters, such as Russia and Mexico, agreed earlier this week to increase production. Oil traders worry that the US trade wars with its major trading partners could push multiple countries into recession. Brent crude oil prices closed Tuesday down 1%, the fifth decline in six trading days and a six-month low for that global benchmark. West Texas Intermediate oil, a better measure of North American prices, has had a similar decline.

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