Fossil Fuel Roadmap: Who's Really Blocking Progress at COP30?

At the recent COP30 climate talks in Belém, a "informal list" of 84 countries supposedly opposed to a fossil fuel roadmap caused quite a stir. This list, compiled by the Brazilian presidency, was meant to show who was blocking progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels. However, a closer look reveals some serious inconsistencies and errors.

Inconsistencies in the List

• 14 countries appear on both the list of supporters and opposers.
• Many countries belong to multiple negotiating blocs.
• Example: Kiribati, Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu are part of both the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group.
• The LDCs (42 nations) were incorrectly included in the list of opposers.
• In reality, the LDCs had publicly backed the idea of a fossil fuel roadmap before COP30.
• Manjeet Dhakal, lead adviser to the LDC chair, clarified that the LDCs, as a bloc, did not oppose a fossil fuel roadmap during the COP30 negotiations.
• He emphasized that the group's expectations, made public before COP, clearly identified transitioning away from fossil fuels as an "urgent action" to keep the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal "within reach."

Mistaken Inclusions and Exceptions

• The list includes 37 of the 54 nations within the Africa group, chaired by Tanzania in Belém.
• This seems to be a result of the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs in the list, many of which sit within both blocs.
• The list also includes three EU members - Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.
• The EU was reportedly at the heart of efforts to land a deal that explicitly included a "roadmap" for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Further Confusion

• The Guardian reported that Brazil's COP30 president, André Corrêa do Lago, insisted that 80 countries were against the plan, though these figures were never substantiated.
• A negotiator told The Guardian, "We don’t understand where that number comes from."
• Adding to the confusion, The Guardian also said two of the most powerful members of the LMDCs were not opposed to a roadmap, reporting: "China, having demurred on the issue, indicated it would not stand in the way."