Exxon Mobil is betting big on lowering emissions, and analysts at UBS think this could pay off handsomely by the end of the decade. The company is putting $20 billion into various green projects, like carbon capture, biofuels, and hydrogen. UBS sees these initiatives as a key growth driver for the long term, though traditional oil production and refining will still be important in the near future. The investment bank has a positive outlook, predicting a 22% increase in Exxon's stock price over the next year.

Exxon aims to tap into a massive $6 trillion market by 2050. They expect a 15% return on their investment, which could bring in over $1. 5 billion in earnings by the end of the decade. Unlike European counterparts investing in solar and wind, Exxon is leveraging its strengths in drilling and refining to cut emissions. One notable project is a carbon capture hub in the Gulf Coast, set to remove 100 million metric tons of emissions annually by 2040.

The company also plans to boost biofuel production to 200, 000 barrels per day by 2030 and become a leading lithium producer. However, these ambitious projects aren't without risks. Cost overruns and operational hiccups are potential pitfalls. Moreover, many of these investments need federal support, particularly from the Inflation Reduction Act, to stay economically viable.

UBS highlights that Exxon's $20 billion investment in low-carbon businesses is a smaller percentage of its total capital expenditures compared to European peers. This balance between traditional growth and green initiatives is seen as a positive strategy. The investment bank expects Exxon to increase its high-margin oil production in the Permian Basin and Guyana, and predicts a $4 billion boost in earnings from refining and retail sales by 2027.

Exxon's Green Initiatives: A Winning Strategy?

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