As the U. S. presidential election neared, consumers felt more upbeat about the economy. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index leaped over 11% in October to 138, the largest monthly jump since March 2021. People were particularly hopeful about future conditions, with the expectations index climbing almost 8% to 89. 1, a level that suggests a recession is unlikely. Economists were predicting a much lower figure of 99. 5.

Dana Peterson, the Conference Board's chief economist, noted that consumers' views on current business conditions and job availability improved. This could be due to better labor market data. However, a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics painted a different picture. Job openings fell to 7. 44 million in September, the lowest since January 2021 and below the expected 8 million. The ratio of job vacancies to available workers also dropped below 1. 1 to 1, down from a peak of over 2 to 1 in mid-2022.

Despite the decrease in job openings, hiring increased by 123, 000. The number of employees quitting jobs also declined by 107, 000, while separations remained stable. These numbers show that while job opportunities are shrinking, employers are still hiring, and fewer people are leaving their jobs.

Consumer Optimism Rises as Election Approaches, Job Openings Drop

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