CNN Instant Poll: No clear winner in VP debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance

CNN — Registered voters who watched Tuesday’s debate between vice presidential nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance were closely divided over which candidate did the better job, according to a CNN instant poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS, and the event left viewers with more positive views of both candidates than they held pre-debate. Among debate watchers, Walz remains the candidate who’s seen more positively and as more in touch with their needs and vision for the country. Vance, who suffers from more of an image deficit among both viewers and the public at large, boosted his standing among the debate audience, outperforming expectations and gaining ground on the share who perceive him as qualified. He was also narrowly seen as doing a better job than Walz of defending his running mate. Both men, the poll finds, are viewed by a majority of debate watchers as qualified to assume the presidency if needed. And practically none of the voters who tuned in saw the debate as a reason to change their votes. Following the debate, 51% of viewers said that Vance did the better job, with 49% picking Walz. In a survey conducted of the same voters prior to the debate, Walz held the advantage as the candidate they expected to perform more strongly, 54% to 45%. The closely divided opinions about the outcome of Tuesday’s debate stand in sharp contrast to the more decisive audience reaction following this year’s top-of-the-ticket debates. In June, two-thirds of debate watchers thought that former President Donald Trump outperformed President Joe Biden, while a 63% majority who tuned in to the September debate between Trump and Kamala Harris said that the vice president did the better job. Views of the vice presidential hopefuls split largely along pre-established political lines Tuesday night: 90% of debate watchers who support Trump’s candidacy said that Vance did the better job, while a slightly narrower 82% of the Harris supporters who tuned in saw Walz as the winner. The poll’s results reflect opinions of the debate only among those voters who tuned in and aren’t representative of the views of the full voting public. Debate watchers in the poll were 3 percentage points likelier to be Democratic-aligned than Republican-aligned, making for an audience that was about 5 points more Democratic-leaning than all registered voters nationally. That’s a difference from the audience for the two presidential debates this year, both of which were slightly more GOP-leaning than the potential American electorate overall. What voters who don’t tune in hear about an event in the following days can often be as impactful as immediate views of the event itself. Following the debate, 59% of debate watchers said they had a favorable view of Walz, with just 22% viewing him unfavorably – an improvement from his already positive numbers among the same voters pre-debate (46% favorable, 32% unfavorable). Debate watchers came away from the debate with roughly neutral views of Vance: 41% rated him favorably and 44% unfavorably.

That’s also an improvement from their image of Vance pre-debate, when his ratings among this group were deeply underwater (30% favorable, 52% unfavorable). Among debate watchers, Walz boosted his favorability far more among women than men, while Vance’s gains were about the same among voters of both genders. About 1 in 5 Trump supporters (21%) who tuned in now say they have a favorable view of Walz, while Vance’s favorability rating with Harris’ supporters remains at just 8%. In a CNN poll of all Americans taken prior to the debate, views of Walz were narrowly above water, with 36% of voters viewing him favorably, 32% unfavorably, and a sizable 33% saying they hadn’t heard of him or had no opinion of him. By contrast, views of Vance tilted negative, with 30% of registered voters rating him favorably, 42% unfavorably, and 27% offering no opinion. A 65% majority of debate watchers now say Walz is qualified to serve as president if necessary, with 58% saying the same of Vance. Prior to the debate, 62% of the same voters thought Walz was qualified to assume the presidency if needed and 50% that Vance was qualified to do so. Debate watchers said, 48% to 35%, that Walz is more in touch than Vance with the needs and problems of people like them, and by a similar margin, 48% to 39%, that Walz, rather than Vance, more closely shares their vision for America. The share of viewers who said that both vice presidential hopefuls are in touch with their problems is twice as large as the share who said that neither is, 12% to 6% – a level of positivity unusual in this year’s election cycle. There’s a significant gender gap among viewers over which candidate more closely shares their vision for America: Among female voters, Walz has the clear advantage, with half saying he does compared with the 36% who see Vance’s vision as closer to theirs. Male voters split more evenly, 47% Walz to 43% Vance. Viewers said by a narrow margin, 37% to 33%, that Vance did a better job than Walz in defending his running mate, with 27% saying that each candidate did an equally good job, and 3% that neither did. Seven in 10 Trump supporters said Vance did the better job defending his running mate, while 57% of Harris backers said Walz did best on that. A negligible 1% of voters who tuned into the debate said it had changed their mind about whom to vote for, with Harris and Trump supporters equally unlikely to view the event as decisive. The CNN poll was conducted by text message with 574 registered US voters who said they watched the debate Tuesday, and the poll findings are representative of the views of debate watchers only. Respondents were recruited to participate before the debate and were selected via a survey of members of the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative panel recruited using probability-based sampling techniques. Results for the full sample of debate watchers have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.

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