Can Trump strike a better Iran deal by January?

Robert Pape from the University of Chicago believes time isn't on America's side when it comes to Iran. He says Trump likely won't get a significantly improved nuclear deal before January because Iran is playing the long game. Early in the conflict, Iran was just trying to survive — now it's setting its sights higher. Global oil reserves are dropping fast. The U. S. started with nearly 400 million barrels in storage and now has about 348 million left. That number could hit a dangerous low this summer. Pape points out that people focus too much on oil prices instead of how much is actually left. Low reserves give Iran more power because they know demand will stay high.

Trump has managed to keep oil prices down through public statements, but that trick won't last forever. Pape compares it to talking down a price that's already empty. Once the reserves run too low, oil prices could shoot up again, making things harder for everyone. Former President Obama said any new Iran deal won't be much different from the old one. Pape agrees with that. Both sides are stuck — neither wants to lose. That means tensions could keep rising instead of getting solved.

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