Brazil’s Election Showdown: Lula Outpaces Bolsonaro in New Poll

A fresh survey indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could edge out Senator Flávio Bolsonaro if a second round of voting takes place in October. The poll, conducted by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg, found Lula would secure 48.8 % of the votes, while Bolsonaro would get 42.3 %. In earlier April data, the two leaders were level at 48 % each, showing a shift in voter preference.

If only Lula and Bolsonaro compete in the runoff, the numbers would tilt slightly in favor of Lula with 46.3 % compared to Bolsonaro’s 36.6 %. Other candidates in a single‑round scenario would trail far behind:

• Renan Santos: 7.8 %
• Ronaldo Caiado: 2.9 %
• Romeu Zema: 2.0 %

The latest survey covered almost five thousand respondents from June 26 to 30 and carries a margin of error of one percentage point.

These figures suggest that Lula’s appeal remains strong, especially among voters who favor his policies. Bolsonaro, despite being the son of a former president, appears to struggle against Lula’s popularity in this election cycle.