Bitcoin's Slump: What's Driving the Price Down?
Bitcoin's price has been on a downward slope recently. It's now hovering around $88,000, which is a significant drop from its peak of over $126,000 in early October. This decline has raised eyebrows among analysts, who are pointing to several factors for this trend.
The Demand Dilemma
First off, demand for Bitcoin has weakened. This isn't just a small dip; it's a noticeable shift that started in early October. Historically, when demand falls below its long-term trend, it's a red flag for a bear market.
The ETF Effect
U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have been selling off. In the last quarter of 2025, these ETFs dumped about 24,000 BTC, which is roughly $2.12 billion worth. This is a stark contrast to the same period in 2024 when ETF holdings were on the rise.
The Big Players
Another group that's been less active is the addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This group includes ETFs and corporate treasury accounts, and their growth has slowed down. This slowdown is reminiscent of the end of 2021, which was followed by a bear market in 2022.
Technical Indicators
Bitcoin's price action has also changed. It's now trading below its 365-day moving average, a level that has historically separated bull and bear markets. This moving average is like a long-term technical threshold, and crossing below it is not a good sign.
Historical Context
Looking back at past cycles, downturns have typically followed periods when demand growth peaked and then declined. CryptoQuant, the analytics firm, points to Bitcoin's realized price as a historical reference point for bear-market lows.
Future Projections
So, where might Bitcoin's price go from here? CryptoQuant sees a potential cycle low of $56,000. That would be a 55% drop from the all-time high and a further 36% slide from the current price. However, they also see some support around the $70,000 level, which could act as a temporary floor.
Demand Waves
It's important to note that Bitcoin has had three major demand waves since 2023. These were driven by:
- The U.S. spot ETF launch in January 2024
- The Trump presidential election win
- The Bitcoin treasury companies' bubble
But since early October, demand growth has slowed down, and it's now growing below trend. This suggests that most of this cycle's demand growth has passed, which could have a bearish effect on the price.
