Bitcoin’s Roller‑Coaster: Why a Drop in U. S. Inflation Could Send Prices Skyward

Bitcoin trades around $61,600, and market participants in the derivatives arena are buying extra protection to guard against a potential decline.
When puts outpace calls, it signals that traders fear the price might drop.

• Last week’s put premiums were nearly 25 points higher than calls—an echo of February when Bitcoin rebounded above $60,000 after a low and held that level for roughly four months.

The PCE Data: A Potential Catalyst

The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures, released at 8:30 a.m. ET today, could be the spark that changes the narrative.

• Core PCE strips out food and energy, providing a cleaner view of inflation that the Federal Reserve favors.
• Analysts anticipate May’s core PCE to rise 3.4% from a year earlier, up from 3.3% in April and the largest jump since late 2023.
• A lower-than‑expected reading would suggest cooling inflation, potentially weakening arguments for further interest‑rate hikes and lifting sentiment toward Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has already climbed to $61,500 from a 20‑month low near $59,000. However, both core and headline inflation numbers may feel outdated due to a sharp drop in oil prices—WTI crude is now around $70, far below the $100+ seen during the Iran conflict.

• Headline inflation is expected to hit 4.1%, the highest since early 2023, largely driven by energy costs.
• An analyst noted that inflation numbers are almost certain to rise; the real question is how “stale” they already are. The recent oil price fall will likely lower headline inflation and ease pressure on core numbers.

Will May’s data be the peak of inflation? That remains a key question.

Other Market Moves to Watch

• Shares: Strategy’s common stock (MSTR) and its preferred shares (STRC), along with AI‑related names on Wall Street, show volatility. MSTR is exhibiting a bearish pattern that traders monitor closely.
• Bitcoin’s chart: A left shoulder formed in mid‑2024, followed by a strong rise that peaked late 2024 to mid‑2025. After pulling back, the price rose again but failed to reach a new high, carving out a lower right shoulder through 2025 into early 2026. A recent drop of more than 8% broke a key support line, confirming a possible decline and suggesting further losses could come.