Bitcoin: Is It Heading for a Rough Patch?

Current Market Sentiment

Bitcoin has been bouncing back from recent lows, but the market remains shaky.

• Demand is weak
• Market stress is high

This situation reminds experts of early 2022, a period that wasn't favorable for Bitcoin.

Key Market Indicators

True Market Mean

• Bitcoin is holding above the True Market Mean, a key level that separates small dips from bigger drops.

Unrealized Losses

• Over 25% of Bitcoin is now at a loss.
• Price is below major cost levels, indicating widespread losses.
• Unrealized losses have surged to 5–7 million BTC, the highest since 2023.

Capital Momentum

• Slightly positive with about $8.7 billion coming in each month.
• This helps stabilize the price and may indicate the market is finding a bottom.

Long-Term Holders

• Still selling some of their Bitcoin.
• Profits are shrinking, similar to 2022.

Off-Chain Signals

• Demand is cooling off.
• ETF flows have turned negative, indicating big buyers are stepping back.
• Spot CVD on major exchanges shows persistent selling pressure.

Futures Data

• Traders are cautious.
• Open interest is falling.
• Leverage is low.
• Funding rates are neutral, indicating speculative traders are pulling back.

Options Market

• Brief spike in fear earlier this week, but it quickly faded.