Imagine trying to guess the score of a football match. It's tough, right? Football is all over the place. A team might be cruising towards a goal and then suddenly, a player trips over their feet. Goals are rare enough to keep things exciting.  This is why predicting football matches is tricky. It's like finding a needle in a haystack. But what if lots of people guess together? Could that make things clearer?  Let's dive in to see what happens when a group tries to predict football scores.  The researchers gathered 760 guesses from a whole bunch of people. These people tried to predict how many goals each team would score. This is called 'Expected Goals, ' or XG for short.

    People are not always right when they guess goals for football games. When people guess together, it's called the "Crowd Wisdom. "  The guesses are combined for the big six teams, so they always score more. This means that people are biased. There was a clear pattern of the crowd thinking that the big six teams score more than they do and underestimating other teams. The crowd is right most of the time, but it is not very good for making money with betting.  It's not perfect, but it's better than each person guessing on their own.

    The crowd's guesses are usually better than what a single person can do.  The crowd could be wrong, but normally it is right.  The crowd had a better guess than what a beginner would have.  It is a tool for sports analysis and betting; it is helpful but not the only tool.

    This information helps us understand how groups think and make decisions.  Sometimes it can be a bit of a mess.  It could be about how people guess what's going to happen in a football game.  Make your own decision. There are a lot of predictions about football, so use them wisely.  Football is filled with surprises, the crowd's guess only makes the game more interesting.

Are Crowds Smarter Than Odds When Guessing Football Scores

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